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July 11, 2007 July 11, 2007

Posted by atlanticleaguenews in Uncategorized.
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RJ Swindle Update: A fan updated me on former Newark Bears pitcher RJ Swindall. Here’s what they had to say: “RJ almost immediately became the go-to guy in the Lakewood Blueclaws bullpen and has become the team closer almost as quickly. Manager Steve Roadcap loves the guy and everyone in Lakewood is wondering why he is still there and has not been promoted yet.

His numbers so far: 19.1 IP, 23Ks and 4BBs (one intentional); E.R.A.: 0.93 BAA: .150 and he is holding lefties to a .053 BA (1 for 23 with 15 Ks). He also has 8 Saves and is 8 for 8 in Save opportunities.” – Scott Stanchak

Crozier Cut: The Portland Press Herald is reporting that the Boston Red Sox organization has released former Lancaster Barnstormers INF Eric Crozier.

The former Toronto Blue Jay was with the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs at the time of his release, and was hitting .236 with 9 home runs and 44 RBI in 63 games. He was Portland’s every day first baseman.

This would seem to open the door for a possible return to Lancaster, but I thought the same thing when Juan Melo was released by the Nationals organization, and that didn’t happen.

Crozier played for Lancaster last season, primarily playing in right field. He hit .291 with 7 home runs and 25 RBI in 67 games. Certainly, someone with his versatility would be a very welcome addition to the current Barnstormers squad, considering some players haven’t received a break in quite a while.

A screenshot from my Atlantic League computer simulator…

Simulating The First Half: OK, so the Newark Bears and the Camden Riversharks won the first half in the actual Atlantic League. But how would things play out in a computer simulation?

I spent way too many hours putting this together in an obscure PC game called Season Ticket Baseball 2003. I created the eight Atlantic League teams, put in the actual 2007 schedule series-by-series, assigned each player their real-life attributes and started the season with the current league rosters. Therefore, there’s no Jeff Nettles or Chris Fussell or any of your other favorites that have been scooped up by affiliated teams or foreign countries.

After a few test runs, and after ironing out a few bugs (teams with very deep pitching staffs tend to have a few pitchers get ignored, for example) I decided to give this a go.

Keep in mind that several things simply cannot be replicated. While I did manage to have the Road Warriors play all 126 games on the road, I couldn’t have neutral site games for York, and I had to turn injuries off so that teams wouldn’t play shorthanded.

Based on my input; establishing each team’s depth charts, starting rotations, home stadiums complete with accurate dimensions and starting lineups with percentages in which the backups would start, here’s how the first half of the 2007 Atlantic League season played out in the computer simulation…

NORTH

Long Island 38-25
Newark 31-32
Bridgeport 27-36
Road Warriors 13-50

SOUTH

Camden 42-21
Lancaster 39-24
Somerset 39-24
York 23-40

So while Camden still took their division, the game gave the North division to Long Island. In fact, the Bears didn’t even finish over .500, despite having the winningest pitcher in the simulation, but we’ll get to that in a little bit.

Here are the top 3 players in selected categories from the simulation:

AVG –
Denny Abreu, CAM, .338
Matt DeMarco, CAM, .330
Rayner Bautista, YORK, .318

HR –
L.J. Biernbaum, CAM, 17
Jose Herrera, NWK, 16
Steve Van Note, LAN, 14

RBI –
L.J. Biernbaum, CAM, 61
Dwight Maness, CAM, 61
Jose Herrera, NWK, 52

SB –
Danny Garcia, SOM, 20
Quinton McCracken, BPT, 14
Vince Blue, LAN, 12

ERA –
Eric Junge, BPT, 2.39
Dave Gil, YORK, 2.48
Ryan Costello, CAM, 2.52

W –
Carlos Mirabal, NWK, 9
Josh Stevens, LAN, 8
Brian Adams, SOM, 8

SAVES –
Derrick DePriest, LAN, 18
Alberto Castillo, CAM, 16
R.D. Spiehs, SOM, 15

K’s –
Dave Gil, YORK, 79
Josh Stevens, LAN, 65
Bobby Brownlie, NWK, 65

And now, a look at some selected team statistics…

AVG –
Camden .282
Newark .260
York .259
Bridgeport .258
Lancaster .257
Long Island .255
Somerset .246
Road Warriors .232

HR –
Camden 79
Lancaster 76
Newark 72
Long Island 68
Somerset 61
York 58
Bridgeport 57
Road Warriors 50

ERA –
Somerset 3.53
Camden 3.90
Lancaster 4.04
Long Island 4.29
Bridgeport 4.36
Newark 4.61
York 5.40
Road Warriors 6.81

And here’s each teams individual team leaders…

BRIDGEPORT

AVG – Jay Caligiuri, .312
HR – Lou Lucca, Jay Caligiuri and Jesse Hoorelbeke, 9
RBI – Lou Lucca, 43
ERA – Eric Junge, 2.39
W – Eric Junge and Evan Fahrner, 6

CAMDEN

AVG – Denny Abreu, .338
HR – L.J. Biernbaum, 17
RBI – L.J. Biernbaum, 61
ERA – Ryan Costello, 2.52
W – Erick Burke and Ryan Costello, 7

LANCASTER

AVG – Lance Burkhart and Dominick Ambrosini, .317
HR – Steve Van Note, 14
RBI – Steve Van Note, 45
ERA – Josh Stevens, 2.83
W – Josh Stevens, 8

LONG ISLAND

AVG – Kevin Haverbusch, .306
HR – Bryant Nelson, 12
RBI – Kevin Haverbusch, 42
ERA – John Riedling, 3.21
W – John Halama, 7

NEWARK

AVG – Keith Reed, .312
HR – Jose Herrera, 16
RBI – Jose Herrera, 52
ERA – Gary Knotts, 3.27
W – Carlos Mirabal, 9

ROAD WARRIORS

AVG – Sandy Aracena, .295
HR – Sandy Aracena, 13
RBI – Sandy Aracena, 43
ERA – Manny Ulloa, 4.02
W – Manny Ulloa, 5

SOMERSET

AVG – Mike Lockwood, .290
HR – Josh Pressley, 13
RBI – Josh Pressley, 42
ERA – Brian Adams, 2.89
W – Brian Adams, 8

YORK

AVG – Rayner Bautista, .318
HR – Matt Dryer, 13
RBI – Nate Espy, 44
ERA – Dave Gil, 2.48
W – Dave Gil, 5

So who will win the second half? Who wins the whole thing? Who’ll take home the MVP and Pitcher of the Year honors? Find out tomorrow, when AtlanticLeagueBaseball.com brings you the SIMULATED results of the second half and the playoffs. – Mike Ashmore

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Comments»

1. KenD - July 11, 2007

Great job with the simulator and I think the results valid. Hard to argue against LI on paper. Given the results and the amount of work that went in to this I can’t help but think that maybe you have a little too much time on your hands?:) Too bad you are not going to Lancaster tonight. I certainly don’t expect any coverage on the league web site.

2. AtlanticLeagueBaseball.com - July 11, 2007

If you think I have way too much times on my hands based on this, just wait until you see the “results” from the second half and the playoffs, to be posted tomorrow.

3. BoosterBabe - July 11, 2007

Mike,
just wondering (and this is WAYYYYYY OFF TOPIC) but the “too much time on your hands” made me think of it….
Did you ever get a new cat? Or are you currently Feline-Free? Cuz a kitten would certainly take up some of that free time! 🙂

4. AtlanticLeagueBaseball.com - July 11, 2007

While I frequently go across the street before games in Somerset to check out the cats that pop up at Petsmart in their weekly pet adoptions, I do not have a new cat, no.

I know everyone’s kidding on the too much time on my hands thing, but I knew I needed to have something for the site considering I wasn’t going to the All-Star Game, and this is what I came up with.

With that said, the “simulated” second half was just finished. You can read the 6,500 word epic tomorrow, complete with a VERY exciting and dramatic finish.

5. BoosterBabe - July 11, 2007

Mike you know I’m only kidding about the too much time thing. I appreciate the attention you give to this blog and it’s always fun.

I just can’t imagine my life Feline-Free after the past 11+ years of having my little girl, (and still going, thankfully) and I know you said you had your buddy since you were a teenager…figured you might feel the same.

The day will come when you will walk into an empty home and know, without any doubt or reservation, that it’s time NOT to come home to an empty home. Until then, there’s no rush. Having a pet is a commitment to a relationship that will last a lifetime (well, the pet’s lifetime, anyway) so it shouldn’t be taken lightly.

You’re doing it the right way….look around, see who’s there….and when someone looks at you with big yellow or green eyes giving you “that look”, the one that says “Oh, you’re finally here to take me home! I wondered how long it would take you to find me!”, you’ll know it.

6. Skools - July 11, 2007

2 questions does anyone know what time the home run derby is. Becasue i know the all star game is on the radio but i wanted to know if the home run derby will be to. Also starting tommoarw they will be auctioning off the game worn jerseys. Does anyone know if the name and number is on the back of the jerseys. Also mike do u think they are actually the legit jersey they wore during the game.

7. Voltaire - July 12, 2007

Well, it’s North 8, South 6, with rain ending the final innings.

8. SharkGirl - July 12, 2007

Great job on the simulated 1st half! Glad to see the Shark’s came out ahead…again!!! The All-
Star game was great tonight in Lancaster. First class job all the way around! Even the torrential downpour that ended the gamed early could not put a damper on an exciting evening at the Clip! Note to Skools: Only the numbers are on the back of the jerseys-and yes, the actual jerseys will be auctioned. They will certainly need a good washing-it was really humid tonight! You can find all the info. on the Barnstormer’s website. They will be on E-Bay tomorrow in the am.


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